In 2010, the fall in property prices was four times lower than the -4.1% last year. But new houses are struggling to restart. And 27% of expected further declines in ratings in 2011. Leaving behind the acute phase of the storm, which began last quarter of 2008 and lasted until the second half of 2009, the numbers of brick began to slowly climb the slope. And this despite the continuation of an economic crisis that is still far from conclusion. Over the past 12 months the value of residential real estate continued to decline on average, to a lesser extent than the slide of 2009, when house prices had a marked contraction 4,1%. E così, secondo le rilevazioni di Nomisma, nel primo semestre del 2010 il valore delle abitazioni ha segnato una flessione dell'1%, che si è ridotta del 40% negli ultimi 6 mesi dell'anno archiviando il secondo semestre con un calo dello 0,6%. Frutto, questo, di una forte riduzione nel volume di transazioni, calate in 12 mesi di ben 26 punti percentuali.
Questa tendenza ha interessato anche i comparti del commerciale e degli uffici dove il numero di transazioni è diminuito addirittura del-34%. Nel primo caso, la variazione dei prezzi alla fine del 2010 è stata negativa per l'1,4%. È andata peggio ai proprietari di negozi che hanno dovuto mettere in conto una flessione del valore dell'1,9%. Stiamo parlando, However, average values \u200b\u200bbehind which there is great variability. In major Italian cities, the value of the property has managed to remain anchored around the playing field. In Milan, for example, in areas of high value, the price of homes has moved in a fork between -0.3 and 1.1% over 2009. Smaller range of variance values \u200b\u200bfor the central areas (-0.5% / 0.1%), while in semicentro prices fell on average by 0.9%. Very similar situation in Rome where the average property fell by 0.4% between 2009 and 2010. In Turin, home prices fell 0.1% as at Catania, while in Genoa fell by 2.7% and Florence of even 4.3%. Values \u200b\u200bthat still does not prevent Italy from going out to head up an international comparison. During 2010, in fact, the average reduction in prices of 2.8% is below -3.4% in Spain, far removed from -17% in Ireland. It was better, however, Britain has closed the year with house prices rising by 3%, but was negative to offset the decline recorded between 2008 and 2009. Very similar situation to what happened in Germany, where 4.8% scored this year has allowed the market to recover the brick fall of 4.4% recorded a year earlier. While in France, the leap of 6% is not allowed to fill the -7.9% recorded in 2009 alone.
yards stalled. Things did not go better on the side of new houses. Also in 2010 the construction companies have had to deal with a slowdown in demand has resulted in a sharp market downturn. The confirmation was contained in the photograph taken in the field Anci, the National Association of home builders, according to which investment in construction declined by 6.4% in 2010 and for next year is expected to further decline of 2 , 4%. If we add the negative results of 2009 (-7.7%) and 2008 (-2.8%), we arrive at an overall decrease, from 2008 to 2011, 17.8%, amounting to about 29 billion euro. Suffering from most was the sector of new homes in four years should get to lose 34.2%. "In 2010 alone the reduction of investment in new homes has reached to 12.4%, experts warn Ance, according to which the negative effects were partly mitigated by the recovery in housing investment, in 2010 increased by 0.5 %, reducing the total loss of the fund in 2010 to 4.9%. "The upgrading of existing homes has played an important role, thanks to tax incentives (36% and 55%) provided for such interventions, which have impacted positively on the retention of activity levels," continued the expert, which believe that residential sector was the most flourishing, so as to mark an increase of 4.4%. in terms of new development.
funding. The growth in demand for homes has maintained a modest pace despite the favorable conditions in the credit market. According to data compiled by the CRIF, in the 9 months of 2010, the demand for mortgages has fallen by 3%. If in 2009 there were more than 242,000 mortgage loans on for the purchase of support (ie about 40% of the market for buying and selling residential), in 2010 the contracts should stop just above 254 thousand compared a growth in sales contracts and coverage of the market unchanged, at around 40%. But what kinds of loan are used more often the Italians? According to the findings of ABI related to last November, buying a house for the families seem to prefer the long-term funding, preferably at a fixed rate. So much so that the banks have seen the rise of this category of funding from 21% to 126.5% at the end of 2010.
forecast for 2011. If these are the circumstances, what does the year that is about to begin? The predictions are for an improvement in the market, although traders are divided between those who say that there will be an increase in trade (42.9%), and who favors instead for stability. On the price side, the sentiment of the forecasts reflected a degree of confidence an improvement of the situation, although it still remains in negative territory more than two thirds of the operators considered that in 2011 the values \u200b\u200bare kept constant, while the percentage of those in favor of a further decline in prices has increased from 37.8% of last half of the current 27.6%.
- Frontoni Gabriel, Milano Finanza, 31 December 2010
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