House, Nomisma estimates for 2011. Slight recovery in the trading cities of central and northern "The worst is over without any major shocks. The trend in sales is considered stable by 609mila of 2009 will go to 635mila about this year, after an important player in the third quarter of this year in the capitals of Central and Northern. Of course, we are very far from the peak of 845mila vendite del 2006». Così Luca Dondi Dell'Orologio, economista della società di ricerche Nomisma, parla con il ilsole24ore.com del 3° Rapporto 2010 sul mercato immobiliare, il più importante dell'anno perché riguarda le grandi città, che verrà presentato agli operatori del settore domani mattina alle 10,30 a Milano.
«Il mercato - spiega Dondi - ha di fatto tenuto grazie alla domanda nel 2009 per investimento e al fatto che nel 2010 le banche siano tornate ad erogare mutui.I prezzi medi sono ancora in calo mentre per la prima volta i canoni di locazione fanno registrare una tendenza migliore, pur essendo sostanzialmente stabili».
«Si può dire che si è avviata una fase di stabilizzazione that will continue in 2011 and there are no signs for a rebound. The recovery of transactions will be very slow and gradual negative after three years. " The Italian property market is slowly stabilizing after the reductions that have begun to appear in 2008, then acutizzatesi in 2009. 2010, in fact, represents a year of adjustment after the sudden vertical drop in sales in 2008-2009 on the front and the less heavy, but still unusual for the Italian market, prices. The demand for real estate is not mentioned as still in growth, but are gradually running out of negative information that had characterized the last months, all real estate sectors considered. Co-products, by location or quality of sales, are not or are struggling to find buyers, while the primary funding for location, architecture, energy consumption is still required.
The 2010 goes to close, even in Italy, as in most other countries, with recovery in the housing market despite a difficult macroeconomic environment. After the acute phase of the storm, from the last quarter of 2008 to the first half of 2009, the numbers Immobiliare began to rise, albeit slowly, the china. This interpretation is also supported by the improvement of the opinions expressed by the panel of operators who regularly Nomisma interview and that, especially in perspective, see a strong stabilization of housing prices within a framework of recovery trend in demand. Always
operators interviewed by the research center in Bologna, we get the confirmation of improvement in the economic as regards the housing market, through the reading of indicators as the amount of the discount prices (on average by 12.6%, descending to 9.4% for the new (beware not to overdo it), a year ago was 7.7%) required by the vendors as well as the time of sale (on average a little over six months) and location. All these indicators, in fact, are moving average and significantly downward reflecting a renewed interest in investing in homes. Furthermore, even rents of housing in the second half did not give more, and having fallen for four consecutive semesters. They left on the ground eight percentage points since 2008, returning to the actual levels of 2002.
"In short - Dondi claims - has not failed the traditional propensity to invest in" bricks "for the return that it may portray, percentage yield that today touches the lowest levels of the last twenty years but remains competitive compared with retractable from other forms of investment and adequate to support the necessary leverage. " About the rental sector, operators, consulted on the possible effects caused by the introduction of the coupon dried to 20% on rental income, alternative to the personal income tax on the income of the owner, whose introduction is planned for early 2011 (but, given the protracted time of gestation, is unlikely to meet this schedule), argue for a scenario footprint stability on royalties and buying and selling prices, and is expected some recovery of leases and, secondly, even those sales. The forecast
buildings. "If the loss of investment in construction - we read the report - we add the loss from the market in terms of amount of sales, equivalent to ¬ 25% since the beginning of the crisis, you get a lower value of the assets of the fund about 55 billion which is likely to worsen again, given the negative predictions for 2011 on construction and real estate market and non-flattering. " In the next year, the demand for housing, both new development and redevelopment of residential assets, should show hints of slight recovery, limited to the segment of clients represented by households for their own use. In the residential sector for 2011 for new homes is expected to witness a moderate growth of prices, although less pronounced than projected four months ago, with a +0.2% in the first half, and +0.6% in the second semester.
The supply and demand for mortgages in Europe and Italy
Information più aggiornate sul mercato dei mutui sono quelle fornite dagli intermediari creditizi relativamente al terzo trimestre dell'anno in corso. A questo proposito, la percentuale di banche in Europa che segnala un irrigidimento dei criteri per la concessione di prestiti alle famiglie. In Italia cala la quota di operatori dell'intermediazione immobiliare che segnala difficoltà da parte delle famiglie ad accendere un mutuo per acquistare l'abitazione, rispetto a quanto registrato un anno fa, ma rimane sempre elevatissima, poco al di sotto del 90%. Permangono, tra i motivi prevalenti alla base di questa difficoltà, la richiesta di garanzie aggiuntive da parte delle banche oltre ad una più bassa copertura del mutuo rispetto al prezzo di acquisto della casa. Nonostante Hence the average throughput is constantly growing.
Business
segments in real estate for the company rents continue to yield significantly. Offices, retail and industry are united by the systematic increase in time for placement on the market and the widening of the discount in the average sum of trade negotiations. David says Dalmiglio, head of retail capital markets at Jones Lang LaSalle Italy about the commercial sector, but its notations may apply, with appropriate adjustments for the entire property market, including the home: "Many secondary products remain unsold. The investors are mainly focused on core products, and still primarily existing shopping centers, dominant in the basin of reference and a history supported by solid economic and financial data. The sustainability of the fees, in particular, is one such financial indicators that most drives the investment strategy of funds. In this light, development and, in general, the center of new construction is considered a product of investment risk and few investment opportunities with this profile are able to attract international investors. "
- Bronze Henry, Il Sole 24 Ore, 23 November 2010
